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Bet On India – The world’s largest bet in India. What is the fifth largest economy in the planet Tata, which entered the real estate market of $ 90 billion

If you want to see the limits of capitalism in India, go to Tamil Nadu in the south of the country. The new solar plant on the roof is located on a large area of ​​550-acre (220 hectares). Internally, Tata reportedly makes components for the latest iPhones on behalf of Apple, and this process finally links India to the most complex supply chain in the world, which was previously linked to China.

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This work is not one time. It is part of a massive $90 billion investment by the Indian business giant, which is keeping itself in its home market and moving away from its 30-year plan to expand globally. Tata’s drive to set up an electronics and semiconductor industry in India could change its fortunes. “I firmly believe that this will be India’s decade,” said Natarajan Chandrasekaran, CEO of Tata Sons, the group’s parent company.

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This shift in strategy also reflects a sharp shift in mindset among those working hard in the business world as they adapt to new megatrends. These include rebasing strategic production from China; the emergence of renewable energy systems; The industrial policy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been approved in India.

Anyone who follows India, the world’s largest and fastest growing economy, may have the impression that it is ruled by Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani, two proud financiers who members make history making them the richest people in Asia. Together, the “two As” could spend more than $100 billion over the next five years. But Tata is actually the country’s largest business by market value ($269 billion) and operating profit ($16 billion last year), spanning everything from machinery to software. We think that his new plan is more ambitious than any other industry, covering electric vehicles (EV), electronics, battery gigafactories, clean energy and chips (see Chart 1). If that doesn’t sound too big, he also took on the Everest of corporate turnaround by buying Air India.

The company’s number, name and records make it one of the most important companies in the world. With 800-900 million customers across 10 business lines, it employs nearly 1 million people, more than any listed company except Amazon and Walmart. He is also a survivor. Among the $200 billion-plus global independent companies, it is the oldest, founded in 1868, 18 years before Johnson & Johnson. When blue-chip international companies go to India—not just Apple (probably) but everyone from Starbucks to Zara—they want to align themselves with Tata, the one company they can count on. heart indeed. In fact, the technologists who run Tata are reportedly the most famous and richest philanthropists in the world, not the tycoons who look up on the Forbes rich list. .

To understand where Tata in India is going in the 2020s and 2030s, you need to go back in time. The company has been through changing technology and politics. It produces steel for the colonial railways and after independence managed to pass through the socialist India. When the economy opened up in the early 1990s, it helped to revive white-collar jobs selling IT media services. Ratan Tata, the head between 1991 and 2012, used the first decade to drag the group into the modern era and the second to take it global with $ 18 billion of excess profits, including Jaguar Land Rover, a British carmaker, and Corus, an Anglo – Dutch steelmaker.

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Many others share Tata’s belief that there is no end to limitless marketing. Annual investment abroad by Indian companies increased nearly 40-fold between 2000 and peaked in 2008; for all emerging markets, it has quadrupled. China urged its leaders to “get out of there.” Even Cemex, Mexico’s cement giant, has become an impossible machine.

Behind that progress lies uncertainty and optimism. Tata is worried that India is too corrupt to provide a level playing field. More broadly, he and other emerging market companies believe that to use advanced technology, one must stay in the West. In other words, there was a domestic trend in India then for ‘Jugaad Innovation’: basic, cost-effective technology that was thought to be a source of profit. Tata launched the Nano, an ultra entry-level car for India priced at $2,000.

This era of industrial revolution has come to an end. Globalization has reduced the income of many foreign buyers. In Tata’s case, we estimate that about two-thirds of its sales are overseas by 2012. So far, 70% of the capital raised has returned less than 10%, our measure of inefficiency. Net income has grown to double operating profit. The controversy helped spark a political crisis as Mr. Tata also replaced his successor, Cyrus Mistry, whose family owns 18 percent of Tata Holdings (Mr. Mistry was killed in a car accident near Mumbai on Sept. 4). In early 2017, Tata replaced him with Mr. Chandrasekaran, an elected meritocrat who is a successful IT executive keeps the team running.

The rise of Mr. Chandrasekaran on Asian business shows another important change: the technological confidence of emerging markets. In the last ten years, India has built perhaps the world’s most advanced payment system in capital, which has helped finance (at least until the recent global technology failure) more than 100 unicorns tech secrets worth $1 billion or more. IT service companies, including Tata, have more than doubled in size and become technologically sophisticated. Although Tata may not want to admit it, Mr Ambani’s US$46 billion investment over a decade in Jio, the company’s 5g telecom business, has shown that you can make big profits in investing in technology. critical to the growing economy.

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Greater confidence in its technology coincides with the new changes, changes in the relationship between business and the state, of Mr. Modi supports. China’s changes in supply chains, new technologies and energy transitions are creating new opportunities. But who will exploit them?

The suspects are not eligible. India’s public sector is hopeless. Foreign corporations did not lead to industrialization or technological progress. Capital markets have not been able to create growing companies with enough capital to take big, risky bets. India’s last investment cycle, the infrastructure boom of 2003-11, was debt-ridden and ended in disaster. The government and some leaders now favor big companies. These include conglomerates and professional firms such as jsw steel and hdfc, a bank that is completing a $140 billion megamerger.

Some companies, such as the Adani Group and Mr Ambani’s Reliance, have embraced the project and the proximity to the state it brings. Others are betting more on the fact that the requirement of responsible and profitable urban development and business is indeed appropriate. My father was in the second camp.

As a leader, Mr. Chandrasekaran is a quick-witted and serious person, with a sense of humor compared to the aristocratic and enigmatic Mr. Tata. Emails are sent very quickly. The satraps in charge of the vassals are told that they will first get the productivity and the capital later. Tata’s worst period is slowly being phased out: Tata Sons has divested $10 billion since 2017 as it exits weak sectors like telecoms and restores weaker segments.

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Some people who were oppressing Tata’s house gathered. Meanwhile, the cyclical steel business is booming and Tata’s car sales have grown, especially electric cars (although its best-selling Nexon ev costs $17,000 more than the abandoned Nano). The cleanup is about two-thirds complete, so we estimate that Tata’s return on equity is up to 21%, or 14% excluding services. The share of non-performing capital according to our benchmark was 10% down to 48% (see Figure 2). Leverage is less than half of what it is. Tata Sons products have grown by 46 percent in the Indian market over 2017, according to our calculations. The ruling on ownership ended when India’s Supreme Court ruled in the Tata case last year. In February, Mr. Chandrasekaran was re-elected for another five years.

Also, something weird is happening. Tata is becoming increasingly Indian for the first time since the 1990s. Sales in the subcontinent reached 38% of the total last year, growing almost twice as fast as overseas in the last decade. The plan for the next five years will accelerate this by deploying about US$ 90 billion of capital, mostly in India and mostly in high-tech and strategic projects. government. Some are grown in India, others are produced for export. Mr. Chandrasekaran sees “a global opportunity for global companies to set up supply chains in India.”

We expect Tata’s annual capex to grow to $18 billion, more than double the average over the past decade. This will make him the largest investor in India. Tata and Reliance together are 7% of the total number of private companies. If everything goes according to plan, the new business and high technology can increase from a quarter of Tata’s capital to half by 2027. About 77%

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